Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace54432deccc317ebe77fd215313ab2709f49cdbfd15c76d6c9b20431b192ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 8c | 7,847$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.88 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 2,454$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.45 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 75c | 2,199$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.48 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 29c | 1,505$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…3654backed Yes | 30c | 1,367$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 14c | 1,262$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.82 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,205$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 64c | 1,100$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 17c | 930.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 20c | 739.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 22c | 603.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 20c | 575.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 20c | 506.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 5c | 486.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 21c | 465.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 77c | 436.91$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 18c | 419.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 80c | 385.05$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 75c | 301$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 69c | 290.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 68c | 281.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 20c | 260.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 8c | 251.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 19c | 230$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 17c | 229.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 25c | 206.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 71c | 198.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 77c | 157$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…e519backed Yes | 32c | 156.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 41cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…c263backed No | 78c | 142.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 17c | 100.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…fb51backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 22c | 99.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…d069backed No | 80c | 96.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 24c | 95.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd7…3a96backed No | 80c | 88.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…0633backed Yes | 23c | 87.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…c7a4backed No | 79c | 62.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…f8e7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked No | 76c | 53.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…2b63backed Yes | 39c | 51.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…8b52backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 34c | 43.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…93fdbacked Yes | 53c | 37.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed No | 69c | 36.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…4662backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…75f5backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…3a58backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…d022backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb645…ca95backed No | 79c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 63c | 18.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 18?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.