Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ef9f270da2935719064e60a233a2d43b80d6a4d37728f5b8fe66829f14c680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 1c | 8,706$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 3,858$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…6b2ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,689$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 3c | 2,264$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,958$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,648$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 2c | 871$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 4c | 819.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 15c | 511$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 5c | 254.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…6ec5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…c263backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 94.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 70c | 61.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…d319backed No | 77c | 52.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…9a1bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…187cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…3a58backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…7c96backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 19?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.