Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b61a73b1cbe5e8936cb4327d932ca388210f9b8f6408f9bf077972b95869657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 15,987$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.22 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 3c | 12,178$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.93 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 3,538$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…25d7backed Yes | 3c | 3,076$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,503$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 9c | 2,456$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.79 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 5c | 2,185$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 4c | 1,888$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,866$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.09 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 12c | 1,682$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,520$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.59 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,294$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6482…0f48backed Yes | 15c | 1,018$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 10c | 1,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 13c | 930.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes | 5c | 750$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 7c | 628.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 569$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 15c | 560.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 559.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 16c | 524.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 19c | 524.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 513.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…8001backed Yes | 7c | 497$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 4c | 466.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 5c | 440.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…d0abbacked Yes | 5c | 399.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…6a8abacked Yes | 6c | 365.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 12c | 347.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 14c | 310$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 291.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c53…a22abacked Yes | 11c | 265.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…485abacked Yes | 12c | 161.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 76c | 109.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca7…f46cbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…156bbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15de…356cbacked Yes | 23c | 57.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…3a58backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.