Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae43133accdeccc1426d29bb70ee7f2ff037ebdc3aac8eac8ea3f5d357cb125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 6c | 4,568$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 3,159$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.48 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 9c | 3,041$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.65 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,902$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…6b2ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,893$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 2,495$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,599$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,572$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.46 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,010$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,004$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…fc03backed Yes | 6c | 963.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 953.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 946.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 8c | 900$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…4c1fbacked Yes | 13c | 870.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 4c | 514.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 4c | 481.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 14c | 437$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 7c | 425.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 381$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…3b68backed Yes | 6c | 317.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 4c | 316.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 8c | 294.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 7c | 293.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…fd72backed Yes | 5c | 288.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 226.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…8001backed Yes | 10c | 191.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…b759backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed Yes | 9c | 149$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…54eabacked Yes | 7c | 148.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…d0abbacked Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…1152backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 57c | 45.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 23?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.