TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5113…e446backed No71c8,128$5,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab33…4aaabacked Yes33c6,781$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3f…feebbacked No52c2,592$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175b…93aebacked Yes49c2,286$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.291533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5ef…18e2backed Yes47c2,123$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c1,962$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.7616740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,792$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes28c1,620$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.971225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No5c1,400$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3301844.4%8 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.32per pick12cpaid+985.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No78c1,277$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes32c986.6$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6038…413ebacked No52c928.43$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.331154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00cf…06f1backed Yes39c910.54$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.11010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-84.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c871$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.717663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes53c750.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.721020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf878…1195backed Yes7c730.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc146…327dbacked Yes49c721.2$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes47c650$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.52157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No73c565.86$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes18c524$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes7c507$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No48c501.65$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…fcdfbacked Yes21c485.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c484.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8333329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe320…5a5ebacked Yes25c462$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed Yes35c457.82$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.282556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa136…2965backed Yes20c443.65$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.73911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-86%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf341…b5f6backed Yes29c431.04$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes29c404.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.74147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe122…33febacked Yes25c392.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes6c387$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c0…3733backed Yes26c380.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e27…c6bebacked No67c373.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…6a40backed Yes6c334.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b98…4b7cbacked Yes30c329.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c315.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.841107.3%8 W · 102 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes6c315$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes38c305.97$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6313424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No46c299.22$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.847255.6%40 W · 32 L+11.3wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes37c266.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a99…336bbacked Yes19c262.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…77d6backed Yes35c260.86$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.084440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c248.66$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4819336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes7c245$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b08…38bbbacked Yes8c242$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes6c230$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c212.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6427…e4f5backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes5c208$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.336342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea76…944abacked Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d45…9a7dbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes10c199$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes6c197$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…0230backed No53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No76c186.68$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.576227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes42c185.52$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes32c178.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.086420.3%13 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes45c165.01$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes7c151$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes11c149$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes34c143.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf149…21b9backed Yes18c140.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed No39c139$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed No37c130.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes32c110.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.120422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f87…1ff2backed Yes45c104.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe62c…e612backed Yes32c103.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.861154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf626…f9f0backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89fd…e8c5backed Yes51c96.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.67580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec32…e87fbacked Yes54c91.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No70c90.41$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.462638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes54c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes57c87.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No70c86.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.971776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4958…d14ebacked Yes59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3036…efa3backed Yes36c83.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.372236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7982…9f04backed Yes31c80.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef8…fae5backed Yes40c74.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes38c71.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.063951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No40c69.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.152536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed Yes63c68.24$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-75.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed No77c64.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.062737%10 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d57…a517backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked Yes24c60.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes26c51.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6911430.7%35 W · 79 L-15.2wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb38c…e0e1backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a69…f64abacked Yes61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes27c45.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3616927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d3…3a54backed No77c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x599a…c212backed Yes24c44.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8635…16d1backed No37c42.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+166.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes48c41.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.26841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes56c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64850%24 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f0…ab20backed Yes47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.