Us Politics · resolved market
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83834fd43682d912e56749fe99bb3e3f7e51324a461d59fafe6fbe6f0afa7b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 9,272$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.62 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 2,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,578$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,172$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,161$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,078$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 13c | 982.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 13c | 963.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…7d7cbacked Yes | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 837.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d72backed Yes | 6c | 810.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fe…6fc7backed Yes | 13c | 779.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +329.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 8c | 620$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…0d29backed Yes | 16c | 606.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…75c7backed Yes | 17c | 573.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed Yes | 15c | 561.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 527.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebec…3b11backed Yes | 23c | 509.18$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 505.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…b53fbacked Yes | 19c | 505.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 5c | 495$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed Yes | 12c | 481$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 406.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…83dbbacked Yes | 5c | 402.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…d830backed Yes | 18c | 305.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked Yes | 5c | 280.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 243.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…9356backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 200.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 13c | 189.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes | 11c | 186.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…e688backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 166.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 18c | 165.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 13c | 148.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 148.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa083…1309backed Yes | 14c | 140.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 133.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…7472backed Yes | 16c | 127.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…625fbacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a5…e400backed Yes | 13c | 113.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…49d2backed Yes | 18c | 101.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…45a9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…f0eabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 96.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…4064backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41a…0500backed Yes | 21c | 74.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…e878backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.