Token Launches · resolved market
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92b3734cddf2232e8713bb0738b8881a3c976c89b63b2c07429f5a64c0d725b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5c…a435backed Yes | 4c | 16,694$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,078$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…f561backed Yes | 4c | 11,290$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…5637backed Yes | 5c | 11,211$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 0c | 6,205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,041$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes | 7c | 4,290$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…4465backed Yes | 4c | 2,958$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 3c | 2,852$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,767$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…a406backed Yes | 4c | 2,322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecd…f575backed Yes | 0c | 2,267$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,063$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…5c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,764$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…c8cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…3610backed Yes | 3c | 1,555$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…f4e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,527$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…baa0backed Yes | 1c | 1,092$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf175…dcccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,051$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…8b5bbacked Yes | 2c | 941.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 4c | 830.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 5c | 815.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…b202backed Yes | 3c | 735.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 674.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 619.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…61acbacked Yes | 7c | 578.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 5c | 543.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 479.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…68d4backed Yes | 4c | 451.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…65babacked Yes | 5c | 425.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…a6f2backed Yes | 6c | 421.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…5f44backed Yes | 5c | 421.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…38ffbacked Yes | 6c | 357.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…f887backed Yes | 4c | 311.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…eb3cbacked Yes | 5c | 308.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…9964backed Yes | 5c | 301.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…f10fbacked Yes | 5c | 200.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025?this page
- Aleo airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Astaria airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Avail airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Base airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?Yes won
- PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.