Farcaster airdrop in Q3 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123939d28c80f53fdb3743fb4843561dc510dc0ff2fb5b4c40974f50db155350

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes	1c	1,772$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	6c	1,139$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.81	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes	13c	975.61$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.9	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+43%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	63c	452.41$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.55	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	19cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	5c	374.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c8…0743backed Yes	6c	349.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-68%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes	8c	171.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+128.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes	7c	162.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x481d…d68bbacked No	66c	90.91$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.91	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b21…1fa5backed Yes	32c	62.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes	21c	59.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked No	65c	55$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.99	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.35per pick	45cpaid	+123.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed No	29c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.4	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e9d…8445backed No	49c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a92…6fffbacked No	75c	26.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.52	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Farcaster airdrop in Q3 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event