Base airdrop in Q3 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe237f9e05a1d42bebec1acfa447a3006d6af39bb6083ab9af0ada6eba8d008

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $129,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $97,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,094 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe80f…3354backed Yes	2c	6,758$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.36	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes	2c	6,420$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	6,158$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.68	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes	1c	6,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes	2c	5,341$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.7	103	20.4%21 W · 82 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	1c	4,507$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.78	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f29…a95fbacked Yes	10c	3,751$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…f4e3backed Yes	1c	3,417$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x49a6…7049backed Yes	1c	3,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes	1c	2,900$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,084$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.11	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ac1…5f44backed Yes	1c	2,030$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7c…d582backed Yes	2c	1,991$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes	5c	1,810$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x296d…70f9backed Yes	2c	1,355$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.15	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	+4.8wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes	2c	1,154$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	2c	914.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	19cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes	3c	908.24$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41c7…f31abacked Yes	5c	842.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.31	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes	8c	792.77$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc012…baa0backed Yes	1c	718.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabca…cfd1backed Yes	10c	619.28$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes	4c	591.83$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a0…8b5bbacked Yes	3c	572.47$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes	7c	516.49$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	4c	509.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b25…fd2abacked Yes	3c	489.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes	6c	470.49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.18per pick	24cpaid	-91.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7481…279fbacked Yes	4c	451.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…1cd2backed Yes	3c	412.58$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea5…1d87backed Yes	5c	377.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4640…7137backed Yes	5c	352.74$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x829f…ccfdbacked Yes	3c	342.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes	3c	286$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.36per pick	53cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeca5…6785backed Yes	5c	284.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	4c	260$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-92.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1b…20debacked Yes	6c	190$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e65…2aafbacked Yes	8c	176.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Base airdrop in Q3 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event