Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b76147cf61746d766d9eb80c609163e3a04f779fc91060cf08dddcb671951f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6faf…6a86backed Yes | 7c | 8,900$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0b77backed Yes | 40c | 6,961$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,647$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 56c | 5,396$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…a98cbacked Yes | 71c | 4,659$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…c732backed Yes | 5c | 4,072$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…aa2fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,655$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…eb3bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,975$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…135dbacked No | 29c | 2,658$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 3c | 2,642$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.28 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…80fdbacked No | 67c | 2,575$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 10c | 2,507$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked No | 4c | 2,396$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 31c | 2,255$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.89 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 11c | 2,080$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…9790backed No | 30c | 1,956$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed No | 9c | 1,761$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…8d5fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,631$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…33f2backed No | 28c | 1,606$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…eccdbacked No | 65c | 1,550$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fd…0f2abacked No | 14c | 1,512$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +267.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 66c | 1,428$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.59 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…9ae1backed No | 28c | 1,410$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 75c | 1,400$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…9c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,157$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5794…3eefbacked Yes | 9c | 1,136$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…0411backed No | 10c | 1,051$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +508.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 55c | 1,048$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.52 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…b4babacked No | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +626.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5dedbacked No | 21c | 953.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…8b5abacked No | 22c | 930.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +365%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 16c | 900$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…3116backed No | 68c | 886.87$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 851.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb2…45b3backed No | 28c | 770.2$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 23c | 741.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…4d7fbacked Yes | 14c | 730.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…81e3backed No | 35c | 687.16$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd0…d0dbbacked No | 11c | 665.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +284.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8f03backed No | 68c | 659.28$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 73c | 631.56$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 30c | 595.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 63c | 585.81$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.36 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 560.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.51 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 557.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.3 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…603dbacked No | 21c | 555.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…5574backed No | 18c | 553.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…19d0backed No | 5c | 525$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…c82dbacked Yes | 2c | 484.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f98…6dc7backed Yes | 21c | 483.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0151…48cfbacked Yes | 11c | 480.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked No | 79c | 472.02$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 10c | 451.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 439.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 17c | 403.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 77c | 401$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.14 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 14c | 399.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 17c | 383.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…43e2backed Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…86bebacked No | 17c | 336.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…4b7ebacked Yes | 18c | 335.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed Yes | 24c | 333.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…cefebacked No | 25c | 324.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…59b2backed Yes | 8c | 323.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…97bfbacked Yes | 16c | 321.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 8c | 306.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 42c | 300$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…cda3backed Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…d046backed No | 68c | 294.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…28c1backed Yes | 8c | 288.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 275$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc344…1c10backed No | 18c | 272.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535a…d50ebacked Yes | 4c | 260.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…b0d3backed No | 20c | 248.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf5…55d0backed Yes | 16c | 247.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…6c9bbacked No | 49c | 246.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…a222backed Yes | 11c | 238.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…3b0bbacked Yes | 7c | 225.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 69c | 214.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 28c | 214.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…8d45backed Yes | 5c | 212.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…5458backed Yes | 14c | 208.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…e6aebacked No | 26c | 202$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…8eaabacked No | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f830backed Yes | 78c | 189.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58dd…6ff5backed No | 14c | 184.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 48c | 183.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9968backed Yes | 16c | 182.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed No | 11c | 182.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +128%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…96fbbacked Yes | 11c | 178.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 30c | 167.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 25c | 164.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed No | 13c | 157.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 60c | 152.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed No | 14c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 75c | 144.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025?this page
- Aleo airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Astaria airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Avail airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Base airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?Yes won
- MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.