Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow airdrop in Q3 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedebfdd7d21cf80727339aa6ae3dc906bcd0d610aefc63cf18ae3da0bc94858e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9540…7f01backed Yes | 1c | 4,004$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…6a86backed Yes | 1c | 1,169$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…5e07backed Yes | 3c | 459.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 10c | 356$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 3c | 351.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 14c | 215.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…224fbacked Yes | 10c | 100.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…e3a0backed Yes | 61c | 48.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…554dbacked Yes | 31c | 34.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow airdrop in Q3 2025?this page
- Aleo airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Astaria airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Avail airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Base airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?Yes won
- MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.