Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef3c14eb999ee70b3c7ba528d34a9b7da2a60bc55256374a7dc0bc0c6d955ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,061,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,073,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,061,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x621e…ebedbacked No | 0c | 139,187$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…a611backed No | 0c | 117,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…2b59backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…3f0dbacked No | 0c | 71,897$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…7fadbacked No | 0c | 68,848$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…8142backed No | 0c | 68,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…403ebacked No | 0c | 65,203$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 0c | 63,497$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4d…df53backed No | 0c | 49,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked No | 0c | 45,799$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…931fbacked No | 0c | 44,856$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…c10fbacked No | 0c | 43,545$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…40efbacked No | 0c | 40,025$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…9c19backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd7…925abacked No | 0c | 36,700$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 30,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…4b29backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…597cbacked No | 0c | 27,065$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 0c | 25,717$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…f6b1backed No | 1c | 24,639$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4576…f30dbacked No | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1001…9bfcbacked No | 0c | 21,732$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…6199backed No | 0c | 19,770$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…f04bbacked No | 1c | 19,716$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…fc6cbacked No | 0c | 17,098$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…e71ebacked No | 0c | 16,581$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…a994backed No | 0c | 13,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…20d2backed No | 0c | 12,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd142…5c9ebacked No | 0c | 11,333$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…3e89backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…3a48backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…985cbacked No | 0c | 10,280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…dbc7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f1…3a7ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726d…39b8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…f365backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…ac26backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…f0ddbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…e8dabacked No | 1c | 9,713$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed No | 2c | 9,516$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…a00fbacked No | 0c | 8,522$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…cf0ebacked No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb081…a15bbacked No | 0c | 7,152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…2fd3backed No | 0c | 7,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4958backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed No | 0c | 6,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…e1d2backed No | 0c | 6,587$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…5af7backed No | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…bceabacked No | 0c | 5,998$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed No | 1c | 5,785$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 5,322$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…72e3backed No | 0c | 5,285$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…54ddbacked No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed No | 1c | 4,643$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…33c8backed No | 0c | 4,610$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 5c | 4,588$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…56dbbacked No | 3c | 4,386$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…287ebacked No | 0c | 4,367$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 17c | 4,181$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.68 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 4c | 4,031$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…a8b4backed No | 0c | 3,828$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked No | 51c | 3,736$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1215…4d50backed No | 0c | 3,715$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 1c | 3,476$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6106…f458backed No | 0c | 3,359$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,151$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.79 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…5ac7backed No | 0c | 3,137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…d319backed No | 1c | 2,927$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…dce3backed No | 0c | 2,885$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6b…08f3backed No | 0c | 2,743$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…9d1dbacked No | 4c | 2,645$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa454…2812backed No | 1c | 2,513$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…4998backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed No | 2c | 2,409$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 2c | 2,389$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 2,252$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 44c | 2,213$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.87 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…9632backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 7c | 1,921$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 1c | 1,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,381$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 6c | 1,328$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…d347backed No | 1c | 1,265$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 7c | 1,258$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed No | 66c | 1,256$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.41 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 2c | 1,211$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.11 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…d9a5backed No | 5c | 1,061$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 5c | 1,021$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 2c | 994.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 2c | 961.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 839$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.25 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 816$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 72c | 808.38$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.16 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 5c | 777$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria by September 15?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.