Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x557eb4e8486bc22e5b5395201e8e3612231494f97533f3c6e46b33ab0c814f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 4,271$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.39 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 4,186$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.01 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 2,313$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 3c | 2,015$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 47c | 1,690$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.45 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 1,627$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 1,615$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.34 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 25c | 1,312$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.29 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,221$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,144$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,081$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 7c | 1,024$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 36c | 994.54$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.42 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9908…3e8bbacked Yes | 8c | 952.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 870.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…3683backed Yes | 61c | 828.95$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 58c | 773.08$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 48c | 730.77$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 59c | 712.17$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked Yes | 75c | 706.51$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.6 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 46c | 703.28$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.69 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 10c | 701$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…a091backed Yes | 79c | 603.39$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 4c | 580.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 33c | 467.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 55c | 466.18$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.09 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 18c | 465.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 19c | 439.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…a40abacked Yes | 56c | 433.45$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…4a52backed Yes | 27c | 420$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a48…5d84backed Yes | 8c | 408.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 75c | 400.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 382.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 72c | 374.48$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 50c | 364.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 7c | 334.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 66c | 322.04$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 311.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…438ebacked Yes | 7c | 309$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…5212backed Yes | 7c | 307.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 30c | 296$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…42eabacked Yes | 7c | 292.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…f813backed Yes | 7c | 276$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 8c | 272.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 42c | 271.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…45e5backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked No | 49c | 262.59$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1d68backed Yes | 5c | 262$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 11c | 254.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…9032backed No | 64c | 235.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 28c | 230$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…7889backed Yes | 12c | 213.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…520bbacked Yes | 50c | 201.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…0fcdbacked No | 74c | 198.28$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…069fbacked No | 52c | 193.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 10c | 192.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 20c | 177.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…8201backed Yes | 7c | 174$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…fcdbbacked No | 50c | 172.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 64c | 166.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 13c | 161$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…b219backed Yes | 69c | 144.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes | 71c | 141.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 15c | 137.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…3cadbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…4e86backed Yes | 8c | 129.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…02afbacked Yes | 40c | 123.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a199backed No | 68c | 119.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 44c | 116.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 25c | 109.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6633…0397backed No | 50c | 105.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…ea89backed Yes | 46c | 105.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…40bbbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…d6a5backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 24c | 99.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…1e06backed Yes | 52c | 95.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 95.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…800ebacked No | 66c | 90.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed No | 53c | 87.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 48c | 87.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria by September 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria by September 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.