Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18b0545ddb55a3f8345f7e875fc774eb789321bdc309d078e6b4c29174e6dfc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,447,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,451,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,447,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 1c | 1,380,552$6,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,983.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 2c | 9,580$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.73 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 4c | 3,999$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…aac2backed Yes | 24c | 2,076$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 1c | 2,027$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 74c | 2,022$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 26c | 1,892$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed Yes | 23c | 1,508$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…6d63backed Yes | 1c | 1,371$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…26afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,091$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 71c | 899.98$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 809.94$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.39 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 25c | 758.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…798abacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 29c | 503.43$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…d772backed Yes | 26c | 379.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 350.15$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 19c | 266.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 247$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…a317backed Yes | 8c | 235.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…79b8backed Yes | 27c | 204.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…6378backed Yes | 27c | 185.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…daf3backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…699fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 160.64$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 28c | 154$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 153.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 19c | 152.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 26c | 148.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec67…86b9backed No | 78c | 145.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…06a5backed Yes | 27c | 142.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…789ebacked Yes | 26c | 117.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…2a77backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…ec99backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 19c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…cb41backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…83f1backed Yes | 24c | 94.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…2e5fbacked Yes | 29c | 85.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 24c | 84.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…b37dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…2358backed Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…721bbacked Yes | 74c | 67.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4410…ca53backed Yes | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed Yes | 21c | 58.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…fa1fbacked Yes | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 30c | 40.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…0210backed Yes | 28c | 39.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaee…7a60backed Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 65c | 23.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…02afbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…3dbebacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?Yes won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.