Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2d46b081cef3805ec6946a26e9930977ca6d173096e18d054101c92a4366a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 1,486$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…30edbacked Yes | 16c | 606.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 10c | 550$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 9c | 534.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…daf3backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 499.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 8c | 481.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 10c | 417.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 3c | 414$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 381.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 280.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 9c | 210.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 195.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 17c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 15c | 130.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3b…55b0backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…6d63backed Yes | 24c | 81.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?Yes won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.