Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb907b96ee98b12640ffdd194b9af5215bc40708fcbcea42576c6096f9d3b4a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 2c | 15,009$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.74 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 5c | 13,836$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.77 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 5c | 10,170$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 9,386$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.93 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,339$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 10c | 7,060$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 3c | 6,570$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 11c | 3,765$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 6c | 3,126$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,658$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 13c | 1,252$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 12c | 1,174$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 9c | 999.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 16c | 999$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 11c | 956.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 12c | 854.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 11c | 629.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +192.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 17c | 573.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 13c | 450$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…f425backed Yes | 12c | 418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 11c | 413.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 14c | 256.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 219.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 6c | 168.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cc…0187backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?Yes won
- Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.