TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1178…be0dbacked No40c2,840$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-76.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes58c1,443$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.832157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes36c1,226$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.731428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes50c1,071$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.8116144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes53c862.31$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.412157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes57c854.08$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes48c645.04$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.5516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed No44c628.12$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.372119%4 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes38c555$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.17129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes54c536.86$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.414557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21012619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No12c499.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No42c492.64$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.937447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes57c475.73$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.976750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes51c454.99$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2623543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cec…dc3ebacked No49c448.64$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes13c443.37$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.734427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes59c430.82$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3118445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes55c416.92$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.378749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes49c399.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.35164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.4wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+29.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes63c399.98$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.142821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes52c388.06$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.764772.3%34 W · 13 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x72f4…4f20backed No43c345.35$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes41c333.83$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.625653.6%30 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes30c332.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.0941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No11c318$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9811121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c317.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9811120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes52c315.19$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.143933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes58c299.99$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1264040%16 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes59c299.04$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.618142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c5…7069backed No47c298.24$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked No69c290.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0356…5273backed No42c290$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No60c283.61$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.866230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No58c272.09$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No33c266$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.893250%16 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9da5…61d5backed No45c250$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes52c236.68$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes51c236.38$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.047739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No44c227$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8813673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x17e8…1031backed No40c212.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes61c212$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.87580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Yes48c199.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.991546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes67c193.29$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No43c190.5$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.595935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked Yes32c189.08$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+74.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes50c183$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.358332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No49c179.84$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1223639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes41c177.08$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No33c170$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.12050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No44c161.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98e0…bf01backed No48c157.4$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.551060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes44c157$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.513360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed Yes33c155$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.854562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.54641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Yes61c133$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes61c127$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.268253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No37c122.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.358355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No35c121$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.351816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.68839.8%35 W · 53 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+141.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed No42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed No42c118.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa80…79ebbacked No43c111.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe964…f5a9backed No59c110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes57c109.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.592630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes53c102.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.47343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5819…087fbacked No49c101.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked Yes63c100.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.472334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4317355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-88.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c18…d823backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41875%6 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+99.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x00e8…531fbacked No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4019638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6518…175dbacked Yes59c99.43$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed No51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc0…390bbacked No52c94.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed No57c82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.093514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed No50c82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2541…60acbacked No39c76.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes48c75.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.054360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No37c71.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.541,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee3d…501bbacked Yes44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…72c0backed No33c64.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No47c63.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…9cdebacked No41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306c…3dbabacked No43c57.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3e…03c7backed No42c57.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+43.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…9816backed No44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes30c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed No39c54.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.162231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No62c53.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.325650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked No57c52.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e99…9206backed Yes44c50.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.44856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.