Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92fe2c8e46854b6fcf4d6cd63b38e09fe5a2d58f8be7180e14579df7deb85e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 1c | 5,126$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 45c | 557.06$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.16 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 46c | 474.18$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.12 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 53c | 429.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…6f1fbacked Yes | 50c | 334.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…442dbacked Yes | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 50c | 267.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 48c | 209.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 54c | 199.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 24c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…4f20backed Yes | 55c | 178.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed No | 46c | 175$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 60c | 167.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 47c | 152.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 152.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…09cdbacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 48c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 48c | 108.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 57c | 103.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 56c | 100.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 44c | 98.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…cb41backed No | 68c | 96.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 44c | 85.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 52c | 82.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked Yes | 57c | 69.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 47c | 68.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 49c | 52.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 55c | 52.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…f6b2backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 50c | 46.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…8bb3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…dd17backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…31acbacked Yes | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…0e84backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…1f0abacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…b6cabacked Yes | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…ab11backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…0517backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa745…5a9ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?this page
- Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Gaza 5+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Israel 7+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Sick person during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.