Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e91c3a3dc6575ae5a9b76681c2c998cc17e26c0cda300cde2ae183241ef5c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,210$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 7c | 803.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 18c | 803.76$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 707.14$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 16c | 682.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 613.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 18c | 599.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…368cbacked Yes | 19c | 531.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…d607backed Yes | 20c | 491.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +268.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 429.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 21c | 381$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…ef46backed Yes | 26c | 378.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 14c | 318.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 79c | 315.18$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 17c | 299.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 19c | 223.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 18c | 210.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…08a1backed Yes | 19c | 210.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 20c | 209.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 79c | 199.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 22c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a03…5ea4backed No | 71c | 175.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 18c | 158.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 79c | 110.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 19c | 110.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed Yes | 19c | 102.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 17c | 102.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…cb41backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 20c | 97.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 20c | 93.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed No | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…4026backed Yes | 20c | 87.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 17c | 68.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…47f6backed No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe59…32c2backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…b7d6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?this page
- Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Gaza 5+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Israel 7+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Sick person during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.