Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ee0e6d21b9c041ac56e4ba0315a1a55ac2383501074e1434614f6378ca30213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1141…55b1backed No | 1c | 10,550$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 1c | 8,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 2c | 6,139$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 2c | 1,585$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 2c | 1,285$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 37c | 731.39$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.33 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 57c | 696.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 15c | 630.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 67c | 548.4$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 3c | 450.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 4c | 445.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 7c | 430.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 6c | 412.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 68c | 395.53$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 38c | 380.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 62c | 340.08$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 65c | 320.96$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 47c | 319.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…555ebacked Yes | 71c | 313.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes | 60c | 297.81$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 30c | 269.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 36c | 232$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 201.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 200.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…f96ebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 35c | 174.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 39c | 159.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 153.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 59c | 149.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 38c | 131.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 54c | 124.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 36c | 106.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 61c | 100.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…501bbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 65c | 81.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 64c | 75.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed No | 43c | 69.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…aab1backed No | 50c | 67.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked No | 47c | 63.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…8bb3backed No | 39c | 57.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 27c | 57.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c9…d719backed No | 39c | 49.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…b7d6backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…f658backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…31acbacked No | 53c | 37.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…66b9backed No | 46c | 35.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 55c | 35.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 41c | 33.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…fa42backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 56c | 31.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…9462backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…4ed0backed No | 45c | 24.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…7684backed Yes | 62c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?this page
- Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Gaza 5+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Israel 7+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Sick person during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.