TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1141…55b1backed No1c10,550$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.251428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No1c8,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No2c6,139$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.092864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+58.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No2c1,585$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.482630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No2c1,285$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No37c731.39$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.336230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes57c696.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.852157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked No15c630.34$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.681926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes67c548.4$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No3c450.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.266750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No4c445.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No7c430.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No6c412.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.628839.8%35 W · 53 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+141.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes68c395.53$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.578544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No38c380.69$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.662755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes62c340.08$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.236357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-66.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes65c320.96$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ce…a3efbacked No47c319.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c63…555ebacked Yes71c313.36$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes60c297.81$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.12580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No30c269.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.843423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No35c240$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed No36c232$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.891127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c201.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No32c200.32$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6621022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…f96ebacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No35c174.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.468749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No39c159.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.48355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No32c153.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes59c149.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.497447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No38c131.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes54c124.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4913341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No36c106.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.29546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked Yes61c100.68$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.682334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3d…501bbacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ad…e148backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.151782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+55.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.81,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes65c81.25$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.754360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes64c75.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.163164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes65c75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8627…1630backed No43c69.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4019…aab1backed No50c67.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9006…05babacked No47c63.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.22821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9386…8bb3backed No39c57.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No27c57.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.510330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c9…d719backed No39c49.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.67343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9869…b7d6backed No30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6518…175dbacked Yes57c39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1911…f658backed No53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e5…31acbacked No53c37.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2b…66b9backed No46c35.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes55c35.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.162657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+43.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No41c33.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.883030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0b…fa42backed Yes62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes56c31.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe495…9462backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9357…81ddbacked No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef34…4ed0backed No45c24.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.09944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0013…7684backed Yes62c21.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…a571backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+37.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.