Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5daba49fa060c225ea4e50c21e64f410c15aee325fb6414981ea1552d29c1d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 72c | 1,459$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 23c | 919.22$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 45c | 887.69$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.78 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 58c | 736.43$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.43 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 66c | 500$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 39c | 399.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 34c | 320.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 44c | 309.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…442dbacked No | 66c | 304.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 58c | 301.39$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 40c | 255.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 8c | 251.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…ac74backed Yes | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 58c | 206.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 38c | 206.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…4ed0backed Yes | 49c | 202.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 55c | 196$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 178.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 45c | 174.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 59c | 170.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 43c | 170$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 33c | 162$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 37c | 153.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 67c | 104.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 59c | 101.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 42c | 92.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…09cdbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 49c | 88.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…0fc2backed Yes | 49c | 85.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 61c | 84.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…c799backed Yes | 48c | 83.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…06f9backed Yes | 52c | 77.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 52c | 61.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…1c07backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…79a0backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 48c | 48.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…8df4backed Yes | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…31acbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…cc2cbacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…8f8dbacked No | 59c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 46c | 31.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…5906backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…b678backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…93ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…ab11backed No | 60c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?this page
- Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Gaza 5+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Israel 7+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Sick person during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.