Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe221871fe7ea12929eb243648f3d97d6bfdf90e3e68a363f188918803cd77eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 34c | 750$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.66 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 16c | 699.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 626.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.54 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 27c | 580$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 28c | 533.17$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 63c | 513.4$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.56 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 33c | 509.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…ef46backed No | 20c | 440$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 67c | 438.84$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…6f1fbacked Yes | 63c | 421.19$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 64c | 400$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.58 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 61c | 384.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 28c | 382.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 79c | 380.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 80c | 377.08$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 23c | 335.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 78c | 327.27$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…862ebacked No | 34c | 307.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 19c | 302$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 18c | 284.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 64c | 281.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Yes | 73c | 267.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 222.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 13c | 214.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed No | 48c | 208.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 66c | 208$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 78c | 181.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 18c | 171.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed No | 15c | 168.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 19c | 166.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…0997backed No | 16c | 146.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…ba7abacked Yes | 64c | 142.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 80c | 127.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 38c | 127.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…0fc2backed No | 24c | 124.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 70c | 112.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…390bbacked No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…79cebacked No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 18c | 106.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 62c | 103.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 63c | 101.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…501bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 75c | 86.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 67c | 79.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed No | 44c | 68.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 78c | 64.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 73c | 60.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…79adbacked Yes | 64c | 54.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 53.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked No | 42c | 47.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…47f6backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes | 75c | 29.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…0517backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…f6b2backed Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 60c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…1f0abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…7684backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?this page
- Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Gaza 5+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Israel 7+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Sick person during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
- Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Yes won
- Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.