Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa74304523e0d5b3ea3ce9d44a7ec5e67cc2ccf15735d46a186497d23a5d9edde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,147,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $992,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,147,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 53,547$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.16 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 7c | 48,988$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.87 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…01c7backed Yes | 2c | 46,707$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 36,327$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.09 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 8c | 27,335$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.06 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 11c | 24,539$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.39 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 11c | 22,349$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.62 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 10c | 20,394$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 4c | 20,000$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 1c | 15,552$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…d5eebacked Yes | 11c | 15,442$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 7c | 14,670$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.89 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 1c | 14,594$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 13,937$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 8c | 13,775$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.21 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 2c | 12,914$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 10c | 12,824$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,457$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.54 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 11c | 10,988$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.03 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,251$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.93 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 6c | 10,135$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 4c | 8,758$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 9c | 8,524$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.04 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 10c | 8,210$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.86 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…d73ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,031$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 6,971$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 6c | 6,164$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.06 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 8c | 5,955$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 5,875$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.1 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…6c01backed Yes | 11c | 5,782$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 2c | 5,135$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…17d2backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 7c | 4,730$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 9c | 4,316$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 3c | 4,032$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 7c | 4,016$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,801$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 3,792$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.35 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 16c | 3,699$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 3,521$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.29 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…a091backed Yes | 15c | 3,431$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…2187backed Yes | 11c | 3,229$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.59 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 11c | 3,078$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.8 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 2,976$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 2,903$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 2,673$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…02b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,520$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…9631backed Yes | 10c | 2,491$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 4c | 2,335$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 2,215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…12e7backed Yes | 6c | 2,193$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…18aabacked Yes | 3c | 2,143$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…910cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,084$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,999$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 7c | 1,914$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,909$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac9…155abacked Yes | 10c | 1,900$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…e4a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,821$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,750$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…a032backed Yes | 5c | 1,713$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 11c | 1,685$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 7c | 1,637$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc082…41fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 3c | 1,576$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1a…55c8backed Yes | 15c | 1,370$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 8c | 1,287$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 78c | 1,260$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,246$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…9b56backed Yes | 1c | 1,218$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17c…d635backed Yes | 1c | 1,133$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…eb95backed Yes | 4c | 1,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 15c | 1,106$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 9c | 1,069$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2b31backed Yes | 1c | 1,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…4b36backed Yes | 13c | 1,059$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 18c | 1,043$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,029$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…f68cbacked Yes | 12c | 962.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 943.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 10c | 940.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…6ed8backed Yes | 17c | 927.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 11c | 905.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…74ebbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.