Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b40eed84fbe8c057c2b520b181f5dee55b430cc3c46968d4bb2f5ef7c518a85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,574,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,402,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,574,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 2c | 168,856$4,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,003.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 3c | 50,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 2c | 44,343$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…4f37backed Yes | 2c | 43,359$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9894…0420backed Yes | 5c | 35,980$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ff…4d3dbacked Yes | 3c | 34,635$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 3c | 33,636$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.89 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 2c | 32,415$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 3c | 29,000$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.49 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 28,024$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.02 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026f…f44fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,579$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 26,966$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…17b3backed Yes | 7c | 24,446$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 2c | 24,250$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.81 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 23,456$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.28 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 22,896$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.73 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 2c | 21,376$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 21,052$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.1 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 16,866$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…d26abacked Yes | 5c | 16,859$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 3c | 16,150$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 2c | 15,978$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.47 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 2c | 15,587$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.63 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…2661backed Yes | 6c | 14,420$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…f73fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,226$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 2c | 13,121$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.14 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,559$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,316$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 3c | 11,424$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.82 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0f6dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,056$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…7122backed Yes | 2c | 10,796$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…b56fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,520$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 1c | 10,291$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 3c | 10,116$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.8 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d8…da59backed Yes | 3c | 9,938$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 5c | 9,801$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.52 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…6c21backed Yes | 2c | 9,707$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 0c | 9,490$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…a55bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,852$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 8,494$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…3068backed Yes | 2c | 7,834$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 2c | 7,727$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,538$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 6,565$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,559$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 3c | 6,470$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…0371backed Yes | 4c | 6,467$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…b0e8backed Yes | 2c | 6,337$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…bd41backed Yes | 6c | 6,200$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 2c | 5,947$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…8e57backed Yes | 2c | 5,750$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c55cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,642$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 5,602$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.34 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 3c | 5,464$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…416abacked Yes | 2c | 5,413$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed Yes | 2c | 5,351$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342b…d6e4backed Yes | 3c | 5,069$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…4f80backed Yes | 2c | 5,038$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…5fccbacked Yes | 2c | 4,902$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 5c | 4,843$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.91 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,469$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…266cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,390$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,318$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…e3c5backed Yes | 3c | 4,152$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961f…8023backed Yes | 3c | 4,074$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…7b25backed Yes | 3c | 3,828$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…2f6bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,567$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 3,435$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…0577backed Yes | 3c | 3,230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…4e9abacked Yes | 3c | 3,189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…6433backed Yes | 2c | 3,145$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 2c | 2,931$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 2,907$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…2840backed Yes | 2c | 2,889$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 3c | 2,267$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…4494backed Yes | 2c | 2,067$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,012$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 1,895$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,791$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…20e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,611$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…8f12backed Yes | 3c | 1,608$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…0618backed Yes | 5c | 1,602$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…175cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,553$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…13ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,552$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…b591backed Yes | 2c | 1,546$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,513$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,497$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,447$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,307$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,306$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.