Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x486fba9e72ab56485e7204eea4def6a82b68ca90504a0dc2cf407c4ea11c20a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 6c | 18,354$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 4c | 16,438$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.8 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 3c | 15,676$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…da5bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 4,345$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…5b18backed Yes | 6c | 2,400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…a1afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,194$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,175$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,950$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9f…2c30backed Yes | 7c | 1,433$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 1,331$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,231$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,074$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed Yes | 8c | 1,062$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 1,057$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…30edbacked Yes | 2c | 958.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…152dbacked Yes | 7c | 861.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 4c | 853.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 838.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 6c | 837$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…3338backed Yes | 7c | 818.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 799.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…90abbacked Yes | 7c | 791.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 778$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes | 8c | 755$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +307.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…0d51backed Yes | 7c | 742.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…e774backed Yes | 7c | 707.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd922…310fbacked Yes | 4c | 656.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…4c7abacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 4c | 547.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a8…6d0abacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…f644backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…0aecbacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 384.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…2ab5backed Yes | 7c | 369.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 6c | 335$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…ba7abacked Yes | 7c | 328.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac0…f1bfbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 7c | 311.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 6c | 310$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f9…428abacked Yes | 14c | 306.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d14…7f85backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 298.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…2153backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…0aa8backed Yes | 7c | 285.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e8…d6c3backed Yes | 7c | 277.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…51b8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…d434backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5b…d467backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 8c | 171.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…bbd9backed Yes | 10c | 103.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.