Ukraine · resolved market
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d8614eeebc7b263c122637f15c9af2b3d268617be7b5a6c9618b32b5efcf1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e5…dd13backed Yes | 3c | 20,526$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 3c | 16,506$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 3c | 13,367$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,556$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 7,721$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,854$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 6,578$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 3,775$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…253fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,689$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,850$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes | 4c | 2,511$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 2,505$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 2,263$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,850$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,814$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 1,650$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…09eabacked Yes | 6c | 842.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…b4f5backed Yes | 3c | 778.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 774.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 9c | 669.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 3c | 638.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…7710backed Yes | 3c | 591.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 3c | 561.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 557.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 3c | 554.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 3c | 536$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…b5acbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 8c | 459.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…799abacked Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…c049backed Yes | 7c | 364.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…5262backed Yes | 5c | 302.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Yes | 3c | 286.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 5c | 201.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?this page
- Russian strike on a NATO member by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.