Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Qatar in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f88406b8af1063425aaca1c53554854fe62b094f753b24d7f88b706a663e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 40c | 8,146$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,912.28 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 73c | 6,902$5,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 53c | 5,592$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.93 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,894$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300.26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 26c | 4,279$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.54 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 2c | 4,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 63c | 3,401$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.39 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 76c | 3,000$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.99 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 11c | 2,254$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.68 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 7cpaid | +413.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 2,150$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.79 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 14c | 1,995$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 76c | 1,570$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.36 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 21c | 1,462$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.42 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,274$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 30c | 1,228$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked No | 78c | 1,040$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 19c | 1,031$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.64 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 15c | 893.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 882.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.58 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed No | 3c | 880.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 16c | 874$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 16c | 873.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 9c | 873.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 8c | 580$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.6 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 44c | 485$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 9c | 422$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.02 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…0ea2backed Yes | 20c | 365.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 32c | 350$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 32c | 350$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 64c | 350$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 30c | 338.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 7c | 253.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…30c7backed Yes | 79c | 195.54$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 35c | 113.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 16c | 93.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 55c | 80.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 71c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…171dbacked No | 80c | 34.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.