Middle East · resolved market
Qatar strike on Israel by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d50ff1c55f4e333ee83205c302e6cb19aa092b93e25b617c06490e51dd3892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f31…25bcbacked Yes | 4c | 18,888$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 10,895$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 3c | 9,661$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.01 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,455$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 4c | 4,859$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…9631backed Yes | 2c | 4,155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 3,479$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,465$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 3,095$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,935$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…43e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,920$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,913$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 3c | 2,869$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…2b59backed Yes | 4c | 2,794$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,750$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 3c | 2,716$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…7dadbacked Yes | 2c | 2,164$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…5421backed Yes | 4c | 1,737$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 1,676$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 1,255$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…d079backed Yes | 4c | 1,233$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 3c | 1,221$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 5c | 1,023$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…6cc3backed Yes | 4c | 1,006$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 899$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 3c | 730.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…f1f8backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…d2dcbacked Yes | 3c | 711.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 5c | 656.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 3c | 653.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 3c | 637.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…8b06backed Yes | 5c | 630.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…9c19backed Yes | 3c | 626.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…b34abacked Yes | 3c | 621.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 4c | 566.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…0ccebacked Yes | 4c | 518.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…359abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…5f0abacked Yes | 4c | 484.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 6c | 446.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked Yes | 4c | 400.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…70afbacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 5c | 306.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 4c | 277.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…c897backed Yes | 5c | 226.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1215…4d50backed Yes | 5c | 212.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 73c | 94.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 27c | 79.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.