Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b8f166f4b296bdcdf05409f3589cf7bc7e1f49997eab4708fb0f3413b969a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 9c | 21,053$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.63 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 25c | 6,393$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.84 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 4,450$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.09 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 3,603$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 78c | 2,085$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 78c | 1,657$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,626$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…6b7ebacked No | 76c | 1,300$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 1,288$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,233$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…c282backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 33c | 917.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 771.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 24c | 698.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 625$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 21c | 571.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…c949backed Yes | 80c | 560.59$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 22c | 557.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 11c | 556.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 20c | 513.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.78 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 510$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 506.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…df2abacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 75c | 480.35$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 52c | 476.41$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92a…2818backed Yes | 20c | 458.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…148dbacked Yes | 15c | 458.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 21c | 420$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 13c | 418$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…4af5backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 23c | 399.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 6c | 393.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…933dbacked Yes | 21c | 385.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…5f68backed No | 79c | 320$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 69c | 318.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 318$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027d…f644backed Yes | 26c | 303.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 10c | 302.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 20c | 300.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 17c | 299.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 281.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…09a8backed Yes | 23c | 261.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 18c | 255.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 26c | 255.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 70c | 253.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…dd07backed No | 80c | 251.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 22c | 238.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 74c | 220.57$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 79c | 214.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked No | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 75c | 188.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…ca12backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 23c | 173.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 63c | 170.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7070…6c6ebacked Yes | 28c | 155.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc111…bdfbbacked No | 76c | 143.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…d61dbacked Yes | 25c | 136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…0e53backed No | 75c | 132.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 79c | 132.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…ddbabacked No | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…df3fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 120.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…cb2dbacked Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked No | 80c | 111$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 75c | 97.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 70c | 97.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 18c | 94.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…3e81backed Yes | 22c | 93.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…d491backed No | 74c | 92.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…d48bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 18c | 82.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…b06fbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 20c | 79.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Yes | 77c | 61.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 59c | 61.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…1079backed Yes | 26c | 57.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 36c | 55.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked No | 79c | 54.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…4929backed Yes | 19c | 52.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…8fe0backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…bf14backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?this page
- Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.