TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbbe0…bf14

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst Space at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2580%20 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+37.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.2
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$21.4
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+86.4%+$25.5
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88%+$11.7
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+80.6%+$17.85
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$13.07
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.7%+$34
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$34.02
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+316.7%+$38
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$14.4
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.5
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+71.3%+$16.7
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$42
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+83%+$62.05
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+34%+$18.69
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.24
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.88
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$4.2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$8
All 25 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$49
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$14
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$806Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$805.87
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.6
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$47.59
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+55.5%+$125.93
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.9%+$147.6
Will Russia enter Hryshyne by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.1
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+173.5%+$99.14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$35
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+50.4%+$6.7
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$119.21
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 18 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.9%+$56.5
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+68.5%+$345.5
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$110
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$316.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$123
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$59.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$24
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$27.6
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$197.92
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$159
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Bitcoin all time high in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$44.94
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$51.4
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+95.3%+$52.22
Missing Epstein cell footage released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Putin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$10.75
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$17.88
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.7%+$63.42
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$15.6
US military action against Iran by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
All 13 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Manel Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alexander Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$13.2
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Movsar Evloev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kape · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.8
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$27.6
Allen vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.6
UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakurabacked Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.6
UFC 317 Parlay: Topuria + Pantojabacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+74.4%+$12.8
Covington vs. Buckleybacked Covington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Pantoja vs. Asakurabacked Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+43.3%+$5.58
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+61.6%+$17.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$20.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.