Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran by Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4872f46049e63f6b62294dd5e51f8be6351c8b0758a3641085bba1519a578898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $811,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $782,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $811,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 67,277$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,803.82 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…efd2backed Yes | 8c | 37,400$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…0126backed Yes | 5c | 23,139$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 3c | 22,122$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.3 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 11c | 20,115$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.19 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…a4dfbacked Yes | 5c | 20,000$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…3b43backed Yes | 3c | 18,139$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +387.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…d5eebacked Yes | 6c | 17,295$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 9c | 17,124$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 2c | 16,013$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 15,519$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.93 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 6c | 14,910$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 7c | 14,189$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +340.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 9c | 12,309$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 10,856$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.02 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…5ae0backed Yes | 4c | 10,156$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…af63backed Yes | 11c | 10,153$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…f46ebacked Yes | 5c | 9,890$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 2c | 9,321$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 9,291$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd806…6aa8backed Yes | 6c | 8,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,041$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…c096backed Yes | 3c | 7,940$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…b859backed Yes | 1c | 7,131$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,683$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.37 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 9c | 6,287$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 6,100$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…a3b0backed Yes | 3c | 6,019$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 5,473$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 8c | 4,815$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.18 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…c59fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,285$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…74aabacked Yes | 6c | 3,701$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…e1c6backed Yes | 3c | 3,687$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 2c | 3,270$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,118$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,938$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes | 1c | 2,815$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…eebebacked Yes | 7c | 2,774$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 9c | 2,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +248.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 2,189$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +179%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…89d6backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,936$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,679$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 14c | 1,662$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 4c | 1,639$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,505$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…a5b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…e22ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,374$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 8c | 1,315$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 8c | 1,227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…392fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,103$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +378.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 9c | 1,078$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,042$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…d2a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,023$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…1cf4backed Yes | 8c | 962.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 6c | 900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 2c | 855$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…d932backed Yes | 6c | 800.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…aa24backed Yes | 14c | 775$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 2c | 728.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c8…9d80backed Yes | 7c | 693.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…1134backed Yes | 9c | 688.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 656$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 10c | 600$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…0a5fbacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…6d42backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…9fe4backed Yes | 5c | 574.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…2949backed Yes | 3c | 559.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +318.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…6119backed Yes | 2c | 527.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 5c | 526$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fda…57a0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 497.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 7c | 490$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…933dbacked Yes | 6c | 478.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 3c | 466$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 7c | 408$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…10d9backed Yes | 9c | 401.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 73c | 387.04$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 13c | 380$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…799fbacked Yes | 7c | 357.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…4169backed Yes | 3c | 354.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637e…8af8backed Yes | 10c | 291$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 80c | 265.11$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b72…5ec1backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…bac1backed Yes | 17c | 194.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.