Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677db25f882c030e38309fdb93d95ab544092caffedf3a0753460e122533f217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,277$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 28c | 606.59$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 9c | 461.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…4d2bbacked Yes | 25c | 423$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 5c | 350.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 69c | 304.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 287.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…4294backed Yes | 10c | 232$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…5c05backed Yes | 25c | 221$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 10c | 159.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 145.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3795backed No | 73c | 144$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…5838backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 22c | 131.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 21c | 70.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…bf14backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January?this page
- Will Ethena dip to $0.12 in January?No won
- Will Ethena dip to $0.16 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethena dip to $0.20 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethena hit $0.25 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January?No won
- Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January?No won
- Will Ethena hit $0.41 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.