Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97cea4602cceb228056d6597feed4e4805f026ec6d5e7a06dca81b6e05c8d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 575.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 16c | 463.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 43c | 350.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…f3adbacked Yes | 17c | 310$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 308.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 156.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 68c | 98.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…e3f2backed Yes | 16c | 80.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed No | 69c | 54.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 30c | 48.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 30c | 48.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January?this page
- Will Ethena dip to $0.12 in January?No won
- Will Ethena dip to $0.16 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethena dip to $0.20 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethena hit $0.25 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January?No won
- Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January?No won
- Will Ethena hit $0.41 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.