TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$593,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed No15c61,201$9,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,288.1711040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1d…f862backed No7c33,000$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf21…7482backed No17c31,545$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,462.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-76.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No15c23,367$3,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,463.73837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No9c19,381$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.64517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No9c13,472$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.79230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2201…42e2backed No9c11,258$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed No10c10,620$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No11c9,163$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fba…56d0backed No9c8,174$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No14c6,749$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.5126238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed No20c6,025$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.9350%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No8c5,895$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No10c4,221$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.173129%9 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…f14bbacked No15c3,825$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.85560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+87%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No12c3,622$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.539115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No7c3,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2454358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No4c3,081$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked No16c3,015$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.292119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-59%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked No6c3,001$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x478e…69ecbacked No14c2,701$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No18c2,008$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.983522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes79c1,860$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3937761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd4…5666backed No9c1,639$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fdf…6b49backed No7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c1,433$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.011432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes79c1,399$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.792857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0995…a388backed No17c1,387$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd704…cf56backed No17c1,375$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No3c1,350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71580%0 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…58b0backed No7c1,338$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c1,330$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.181302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57aa…04c5backed No7c1,250$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No6c1,250$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.283815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed No13c1,234$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.424725.5%12 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No19c1,155$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No2c1,128$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-95.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x509a…8a43backed No13c1,112$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No5c1,009$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.44380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef9f…216bbacked No7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No14c1,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2a…8d43backed No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a1…34f0backed No24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1706033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcd…40f7backed No10c953.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No3c944.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91520%0 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No2c800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.786518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No16c793.13$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4910343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x438e…c499backed No7c776.29$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8406…565fbacked Yes77c775.17$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377e…a9d3backed No16c770$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.21040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No23c762.33$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5810651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x873e…059bbacked No11c761.34$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc2…af19backed No15c747.27$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.091338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked No13c734$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6b…7cd8backed No2c715$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c705.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.785327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No18c677.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.675123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde89…e378backed No9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+154.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd86d…648dbacked Yes79c635.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No16c617.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x548d…59b3backed No17c588.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed No18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes79c506.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.911172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed No18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904010%4 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-50.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0f46…bfb3backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No17c419.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No3c402.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa1da…b838backed No13c402.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9144…a412backed Yes75c397.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.324100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed No25c396.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes77c395.1$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bd6…15d9backed No8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24a…9211backed No7c340.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed No15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x181a…39d8backed No6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No12c329$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.938711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2877…ce8cbacked No19c313.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4e…4c80backed No3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0b…fb1abacked Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd38…09a8backed No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195d…1297backed No8c296.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939a…0410backed No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65dc…2a93backed No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes45c279.64$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.814920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No10c263.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.248232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5241…775ebacked No8c262.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No15c252.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2657…4af5backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa25…54b2backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…0d1bbacked No18c250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No21c245.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No24c241.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fae…a900backed No11c235$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa582…8ec0backed No26c230.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f8…55c9backed No14c230$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.