IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa53fdef6047fbcdd3bf305ad19851a3bcf28eda72bdd31039f45cb8fa379f747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $697,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $519,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $697,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 54,457$4,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.24 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 4c | 30,267$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,147$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 2c | 19,819$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.58 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 2c | 15,934$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…63c1backed Yes | 10c | 14,348$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,109$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 9,848$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 5c | 9,183$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 3c | 8,943$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 6c | 7,458$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 7,386$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 11c | 7,224$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 12c | 5,233$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156a…dd4bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,949$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…0772backed Yes | 3c | 4,806$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 17c | 4,580$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Yes | 9c | 4,137$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 2c | 3,650$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes | 9c | 3,539$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 9c | 3,475$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…38a2backed Yes | 5c | 3,271$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…d9aabacked Yes | 5c | 3,228$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…4120backed Yes | 5c | 3,210$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 3,038$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 26c | 3,023$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 20c | 2,931$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…d1c9backed No | 72c | 2,867$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,790$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,778$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c9…9d7ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,676$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…f06abacked Yes | 5c | 2,667$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,452$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…95efbacked Yes | 5c | 2,433$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…fee1backed Yes | 5c | 2,425$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,393$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 14c | 2,378$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 12c | 2,367$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 75c | 2,246$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…64acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,231$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe8…9040backed Yes | 5c | 2,148$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 2,139$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…66d7backed Yes | 5c | 2,086$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…312dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,059$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 7c | 2,043$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,920$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.98 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,775$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…fe97backed Yes | 5c | 1,770$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009f…45fcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,768$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…0964backed Yes | 5c | 1,752$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,748$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…f81abacked Yes | 5c | 1,745$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed No | 73c | 1,738$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…0c0bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,719$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…41f2backed Yes | 5c | 1,680$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 14c | 1,607$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…39e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,592$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 12c | 1,589$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3173…d433backed Yes | 5c | 1,564$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…e206backed Yes | 5c | 1,554$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…38f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 20c | 1,474$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…219ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,457$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 12c | 1,445$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec8…7c74backed Yes | 5c | 1,423$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,358$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a3…44a4backed Yes | 5c | 1,341$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b1…caeebacked Yes | 5c | 1,289$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…6c49backed Yes | 5c | 1,274$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 8c | 1,253$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,242$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,154$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 18c | 1,120$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,102$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…188bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,089$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 1,085$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa114…bd0abacked Yes | 5c | 1,071$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 14c | 1,066$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,064$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 1,039$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…1db5backed Yes | 5c | 1,023$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…e17ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,017$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b0…7a26backed Yes | 5c | 1,012$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…bf17backed Yes | 5c | 1,011$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…c1cdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,003$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fe…8043backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…a5a4backed Yes | 5c | 998$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…21cdbacked Yes | 17c | 983.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…87d0backed Yes | 5c | 953$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…5f69backed Yes | 5c | 923$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 908.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…d2eebacked Yes | 3c | 904.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes | 6c | 894$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.