IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7af6cffebfc1c0d3b19d66a2495a19a12b41a63af98e40d70f2bc710c7f1561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 1c | 22,060$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…1672backed Yes | 0c | 20,827$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 0c | 13,501$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 12,181$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 11,920$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…8e5cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,753$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 8,381$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…2289backed Yes | 1c | 8,128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 8,106$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,430$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,785$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,768$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,753$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 5,196$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…8f57backed Yes | 0c | 4,252$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 3,767$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,619$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 3,522$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…9467backed Yes | 0c | 3,522$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,337$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,899$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,609$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,423$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,315$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…9e30backed Yes | 3c | 1,858$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,770$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…9e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,722$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…2103backed Yes | 1c | 1,676$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,666$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…f2f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,594$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,323$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…3b40backed Yes | 1c | 1,313$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,044$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…14c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 2c | 949.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…af99backed Yes | 3c | 945.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…584dbacked Yes | 2c | 886.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 797.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 2c | 702.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 695.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…409fbacked Yes | 2c | 502.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes | 2c | 482.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 2c | 476.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ea…8088backed Yes | 2c | 401.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…91f1backed Yes | 3c | 359.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ca…abc4backed Yes | 5c | 274.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.