IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82776e1d30f29cec9b99f63f4d821527bbfc028af995381cff815074a10ff167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 0c | 28,305$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 4c | 24,324$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 20,973$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 14,070$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…8558backed Yes | 1c | 13,928$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 12,869$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.89 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 2c | 12,088$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,070$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 11,662$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 2c | 10,732$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…e6e1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…eccabacked Yes | 5c | 8,572$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…7202backed Yes | 1c | 8,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…2289backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 1c | 7,557$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 6,150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,037$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 5,119$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…f32bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,091$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,871$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…35ecbacked Yes | 1c | 4,705$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes | 3c | 4,645$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…590bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,796$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,722$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 4c | 3,055$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,044$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…2db3backed Yes | 1c | 3,014$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,922$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,733$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce85…3210backed Yes | 1c | 2,666$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,653$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 2,414$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…14c0backed Yes | 5c | 2,357$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 2,289$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…0b89backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,985$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,979$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 9c | 1,939$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…0ae0backed Yes | 1c | 1,822$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,800$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,714$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7887…676ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,675$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…a016backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3acf…e59dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,617$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,581$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 3c | 1,564$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,562$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,559$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…6d31backed Yes | 2c | 1,552$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,466$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,451$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e07dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,442$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,425$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…5d20backed Yes | 8c | 1,424$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754c…ce51backed Yes | 1c | 1,392$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,307$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…d29bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,275$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1494…9887backed Yes | 1c | 1,248$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 986.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae3…0b94backed Yes | 1c | 963.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 940.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6a…6c81backed Yes | 3c | 887.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed Yes | 3c | 831.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 13c | 800$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 5c | 681.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 18c | 650$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…80e4backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…9ce6backed Yes | 3c | 599.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 503.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 498.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 490.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 14c | 464.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 7c | 414.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 5c | 407.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 13c | 332.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…d5afbacked Yes | 6c | 321.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 316.41$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325c…1686backed Yes | 18c | 270.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 270$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4405…6a37backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1827…b224backed Yes | 7c | 245$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…39f5backed Yes | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 228.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa262…c93abacked Yes | 24c | 207.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f17…ffd1backed Yes | 6c | 205$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 204.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…1892backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.