IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f44c4409cd8e1e3aab863f9692bac2d78073b33b3b10cb10a2685ba1ad94b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $545,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 1c | 40,680$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 30,055$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 1c | 14,776$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 11,753$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…e6e1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 8,536$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…b809backed Yes | 4c | 7,190$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 6,097$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 2c | 5,923$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 1c | 5,435$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…70a5backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 5,241$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…7202backed Yes | 1c | 4,987$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…a013backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…14c0backed Yes | 10c | 4,664$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 1c | 4,373$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…434cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…590bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,054$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,742$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 2c | 3,630$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…0772backed Yes | 1c | 3,571$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…fbddbacked Yes | 2c | 3,565$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 3,396$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,295$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda7…13ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…1c68backed Yes | 2c | 3,158$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,946$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,779$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 2c | 2,679$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcde…8ddabacked Yes | 0c | 2,665$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 2,648$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…729bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,627$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…7e3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,596$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 2,586$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 2c | 2,550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,544$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b2…e278backed Yes | 4c | 2,506$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,493$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 1c | 2,447$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b5…0352backed Yes | 2c | 2,250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…0b89backed Yes | 2c | 2,195$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,139$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 2,060$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…6326backed Yes | 1c | 2,007$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,948$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,868$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…ef98backed Yes | 2c | 1,817$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…2353backed Yes | 2c | 1,808$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 1c | 1,790$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acf…e59dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,717$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f2…3833backed Yes | 1c | 1,702$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…2995backed Yes | 1c | 1,666$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…e5d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,655$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 1,616$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…bee3backed Yes | 1c | 1,610$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb7…3b6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,593$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,583$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,566$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…b4cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,534$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,507$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,467$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,462$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,402$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed Yes | 2c | 1,321$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…308cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,293$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…24d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,271$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6a…6c81backed Yes | 4c | 1,257$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,237$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…3a45backed Yes | 1c | 1,191$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce85…3210backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…12c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…631abacked Yes | 1c | 1,119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 1,103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 2c | 1,092$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 1c | 1,091$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…b5cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,008$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…d297backed Yes | 1c | 999$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 2c | 994.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…2506backed Yes | 1c | 990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323d…2d8fbacked Yes | 2c | 987.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…89a3backed Yes | 1c | 977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…c99ebacked Yes | 1c | 977$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…b806backed Yes | 1c | 970$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…b261backed Yes | 1c | 970$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…0617backed Yes | 1c | 960$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea46…3f09backed Yes | 1c | 940$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…ebbebacked Yes | 2c | 878$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…d29bbacked Yes | 2c | 870$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 3c | 761.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 2c | 748.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…f81abacked Yes | 2c | 720$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1c…b43cbacked Yes | 2c | 710$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 8c | 677.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.