Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b35a7bb2158a51809e3c1908baa159cbd6fccce703f9a558cdafb0950dd920e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 69c | 10,563$7,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,295.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 30c | 4,466$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 2,594$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…e87cbacked No | 9c | 2,500$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 2,128$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 11c | 1,754$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 1,665$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 16c | 1,654$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 10c | 1,108$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 25c | 1,063$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.95 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 1,020$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.28 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a72…4693backed No | 5c | 1,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 3c | 954.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed No | 17c | 690.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 667.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 50c | 651$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 9c | 639.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…e6b7backed No | 46c | 630$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 26c | 600$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 32c | 592.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 27c | 561.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 47c | 510.64$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 35c | 495.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed No | 40c | 456.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 9c | 441.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 12c | 401.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 352.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 10c | 327.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 315$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…898ebacked No | 5c | 302$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 46c | 295.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 55c | 268.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c9…d2a2backed No | 8c | 244.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 78c | 202$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked No | 18c | 200.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f71cbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 68c | 198.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…0ef8backed No | 60c | 166.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 39c | 160.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…baa2backed No | 10c | 148.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 141.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…bf14backed No | 37c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 50c | 139.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 76c | 130.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…e101backed No | 44c | 129.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 47c | 126.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +402.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 19c | 126.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 35c | 123.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…eb75backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…495fbacked No | 16c | 115.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 113.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 111.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…66cdbacked No | 27c | 109.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…7c07backed No | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 34c | 103.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…89babacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed No | 24c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 12c | 99.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…2ea8backed No | 22c | 88.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…3a3dbacked No | 45c | 86.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 43c | 79.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…820abacked Yes | 64c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 19c | 64.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked No | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 79c | 47.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…8bb3backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 41c | 36.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…465dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 68c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 65c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…0dc5backed Yes | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?this page
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.