TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee69…05d0backed Yes69c10,563$7,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,295.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No30c4,466$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.66053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No7c2,594$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked No9c2,500$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c2,128$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.371,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No11c1,754$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.144221.4%9 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No9c1,665$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6311010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed No16c1,654$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2641010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16011120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No10c1,108$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.162810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No25c1,063$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9518745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c1,020$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a72…4693backed No5c1,005$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No3c954.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbaf…2833backed No17c690.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No14c667.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes50c651$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.182626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No9c639.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.56626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed No46c630$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No26c600$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1576833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.824139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No32c592.97$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2621634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No27c561.65$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6518445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed No47c510.64$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No35c495.9$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x409c…9ac8backed No40c456.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No9c441.61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.153164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No12c401.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.435343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No35c352.93$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No10c327.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.284557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c315$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb9a2…898ebacked No5c302$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No41c300$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No46c295.15$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.414843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No11c272$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.924942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes55c268.24$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3925241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c9…d2a2backed No8c244.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes78c202$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4514624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x980a…8ccbbacked No18c200.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02e4…f71cbacked No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes68c198.62$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be7…0ef8backed No60c166.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No39c160.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1e…baa2backed No10c148.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No18c141.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1633627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe0…bf14backed No37c140$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No50c139.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes76c130.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.77633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-37.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…e101backed No44c129.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes47c126.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick29cpaid+402.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No19c126.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.327147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No35c123.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9314230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf448…eb75backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d4…495fbacked No16c115.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c113.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.521,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No11c111.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.714935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ad…66cdbacked No27c109.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…7c07backed No23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed No34c103.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.823330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe117…b4e7backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b55…89babacked No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed No24c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.132147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed No12c99.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.993125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b95…2ea8backed No22c88.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae65…3a3dbacked No45c86.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No43c79.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.348250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked Yes55c78$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.15474.1%40 W · 14 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc49b…820abacked Yes64c73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No19c64.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No36c63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.684641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked No48c60.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x027c…60f2backed Yes73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked No56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes79c47.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0924035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed No55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked Yes73c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.072458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9386…8bb3backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes41c36.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.711428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…647abacked No55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe891…465dbacked No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed Yes68c27.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.725955.9%33 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…d308backed Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes65c15.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4433618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x11bb…0dc5backed Yes77c15.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.