UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc24aa01123dccff5c173cc10499bb7b7a8fa18dcdeada509b2454bbef85cf06c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manel Kapeof Kyoji Horiguchi, Manel Kape
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $904,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,047,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $904,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 592 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Manel Kape | 63c | 319,295$199,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119,316.2 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 100,000$38,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,000 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Manel Kape | 62c | 70,000$43,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,599.91 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Manel Kape | 61c | 55,361$33,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,590.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 48,787$18,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,051.19 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 48,672$18,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,302.43 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 41,876$15,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,494.22 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 41,176$15,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,384.41 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 40,720$15,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,186.9 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 35,000$13,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,649.99 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Manel Kape | 59c | 27,362$16,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,339.1 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…49f6backed Manel Kape | 61c | 23,642$14,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,249.82 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 20,048$7,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,424.45 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 20,000$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Manel Kape | 72c | 19,839$14,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.28 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…d230backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 18,004$7,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,382.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 16,105$5,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.93 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…9cf9backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 1c | 14,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 12,965$5,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,084.23 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.99 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 9,502$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…0561backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 43c | 9,377$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…2ae3backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 5c | 9,321$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…a0a9backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 8,372$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.05 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…3c83backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 7,895$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 9c | 7,889$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.71 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Manel Kape | 62c | 7,584$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 6,888$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.44 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 6,594$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.66 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 6,361$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.92 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Manel Kape | 63c | 5,970$3,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.75 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…a68fbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 5,606$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 5,263$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 55c | 5,259$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.8 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Manel Kape | 60c | 5,024$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.25 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Manel Kape | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 40c | 5,000$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.32 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Manel Kape | 49c | 4,471$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.56 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Manel Kape | 58c | 4,416$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.81 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 62c | 4,363$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.81 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked Manel Kape | 61c | 4,262$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 44c | 4,118$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.14 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 50c | 4,007$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.95 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Manel Kape | 59c | 3,773$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Manel Kape | 59c | 3,669$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.17 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Manel Kape | 60c | 3,521$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…3badbacked Manel Kape | 63c | 3,443$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Manel Kape | 53c | 3,388$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.84 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 3,374$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.81 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 3,257$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.42 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Manel Kape | 62c | 3,200$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.01 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Manel Kape | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 42c | 3,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.98 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 2,981$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 10c | 2,916$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…eb9abacked Manel Kape | 62c | 2,903$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.23 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 2,800$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.99 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…9867backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 54c | 2,780$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…b6abbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 2,656$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…89d7backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 2,640$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 55c | 2,631$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.45 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Manel Kape | 61c | 2,549$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.52 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Manel Kape | 56c | 2,335$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.69 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Manel Kape | 62c | 2,273$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 2,253$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.48 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…9684backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 6c | 2,104$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Manel Kape | 61c | 2,074$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.45 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…6ea2backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 2,060$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.88 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 2,000$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.79 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…bc89backed Manel Kape | 61c | 1,991$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 40c | 1,967$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.93 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08db…cf71backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 44c | 1,687$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.73 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 45c | 1,667$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Manel Kape | 62c | 1,618$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 1,610$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.98 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Manel Kape | 62c | 1,561$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.99 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 39c | 1,529$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.09 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.84 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 1,482$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.76 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 38c | 1,462$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.73 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Manel Kape | 64c | 1,406$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.25 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 1,406$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.58 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Manel Kape | 30c | 1,400$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 1,337$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.17 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 1,336$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 37c | 1,288$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.45 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 1,278$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.98 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…23c9backed Manel Kape | 62c | 1,266$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Manel Kape | 62c | 1,260$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Manel Kape | 61c | 1,249$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.95 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Manel Kape | 62c | 1,232$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…1249backed Manel Kape | 36c | 1,202$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Manel Kape | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 1,139$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.84 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…63f8backed Manel Kape | 60c | 1,086$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Kyoji Horiguchi | 41c | 1,066$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.