UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56bdb828c3ec36de80880144d8f48c45fa39586caa1a8955f2c5ee57ee62479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 9,149$4,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.13 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…a68fbacked Under | 47c | 5,081$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Under | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.36 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 47c | 1,486$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 1,202$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.98 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…89f3backed Under | 47c | 508.07$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 46c | 500.91$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 54c | 417.68$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.55 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Under | 47c | 223.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Under | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Under | 45c | 152.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 119.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Over | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…ae1cbacked Under | 47c | 83.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…4a87backed Under | 47c | 69.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 68.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Under | 47c | 61.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…4280backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)Manel Kape won
- Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.