UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322f0af40a251f7c226058ec09c96db0c64f5ab78818e3e22bc9c41ee1155160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 57c | 2,281$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.7 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 44c | 934.05$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.65 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 43c | 837.36$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.07 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 23c | 541.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 44c | 410$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd350…151dbacked No | 59c | 256.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…147fbacked No | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…0670backed No | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 48c | 224.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed No | 52c | 164.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 46c | 136$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…69f9backed No | 55c | 131.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 52c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed No | 58c | 93.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Yes | 43c | 58.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed No | 55c | 45.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 53c | 36.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea06…39acbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 30.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)Manel Kape won
- Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.