Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb092832271358be7f3c76f96fd176d89a29427121461a4058497e510adb03fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 0c | 10,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 14c | 10,243$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.73 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 6c | 7,377$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 78c | 7,190$5,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.61 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed No | 22c | 4,466$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 7c | 3,689$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 9c | 3,114$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 16c | 2,773$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.47 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed Yes | 73c | 1,800$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 79c | 1,700$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,575$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.07 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 30c | 1,540$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.92 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 80c | 1,459$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…4b4abacked Yes | 72c | 1,300$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 1,223$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.04 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 24c | 1,217$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 71c | 1,163$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +266.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,075$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 31c | 1,057$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.67 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…672ebacked Yes | 73c | 956.01$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed No | 6c | 949.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 32c | 940$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed No | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…d076backed Yes | 67c | 900$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…a3afbacked No | 28c | 899.98$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 850.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 65c | 800$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 798.85$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 30c | 750$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…02e6backed Yes | 72c | 696$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…b849backed No | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 6c | 685.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…0541backed No | 28c | 646.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 71c | 633.32$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +489.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 70c | 550$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955b…913ebacked No | 15c | 532.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 26c | 506.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +190%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 74c | 501.84$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 71c | 500$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 29c | 487.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 14c | 483.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 5c | 460$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 80c | 400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 73c | 389.36$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 65c | 387.48$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 31c | 385$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 70c | 339.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 69c | 339.01$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 22c | 312.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed Yes | 66c | 294.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…2955backed Yes | 73c | 269.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed No | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 19c | 255.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 30c | 222.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 31c | 210$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 32c | 207.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +57%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked No | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 145.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 142.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…15a9backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked Yes | 74c | 118.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3962…e417backed No | 30c | 100.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12dd…f2bebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93a…251bbacked No | 25c | 99.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…58debacked No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…541dbacked Yes | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3633…6376backed No | 36c | 92.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…c757backed No | 29c | 86.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 86.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…3e51backed No | 28c | 84.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…bf14backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed No | 21c | 79.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0693…4d57backed No | 28c | 78.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 36c | 76.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?this page
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.