TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,549 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34ab…3eb5backed No0c10,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No14c10,243$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.7326238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No6c7,377$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.624946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes78c7,190$5,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.6111647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed No22c4,466$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No7c3,689$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked No9c3,114$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.264829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No16c2,773$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.473847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked No1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8190…b247backed Yes73c1,800$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes79c1,700$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes74c1,575$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.073863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No30c1,540$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.929734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed Yes80c1,459$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248a…4b4abacked Yes72c1,300$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No22c1,223$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.047735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No24c1,217$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1213128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes71c1,163$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.684100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+266.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c1,075$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.481024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No31c1,057$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.6735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf75b…672ebacked Yes73c956.01$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2561127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x796d…9551backed No6c949.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed No32c940$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c33…8ad6backed No22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a2…d076backed Yes67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2972100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+159.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No35c900$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3157548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2758…a3afbacked No28c899.98$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No13c850.78$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.073218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes65c800$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No31c798.85$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3530837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No30c750$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa9…02e6backed Yes72c696$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x467b…b849backed No29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No6c685.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.872619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10c…0541backed No28c646.59$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes71c633.32$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.326100%6 W · 0 L+4.1wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+489.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes70c550$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.363246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x955b…913ebacked No15c532.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed No26c506.73$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+190%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes74c501.84$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.749034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes71c500$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1153348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No29c487.75$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.965337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No14c483.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.657241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9e8…7b51backed No5c460$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes80c400$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes73c389.36$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes65c387.48$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.494734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No31c385$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11911645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes70c339.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.210343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes69c339.01$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.961233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+42.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked No22c312.75$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e9e…02b7backed Yes78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+559.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes79c300$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked No21c299.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed Yes66c294.03$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.254163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bae…2955backed Yes73c269.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick62cpaid+68.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed No18c260$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No19c255.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.813351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No30c222.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.162250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed No31c210$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.856944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked No32c207.74$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.196136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4221426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+57%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Yes70c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes72c200$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…ab3dbacked No16c199.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e23…8579backed No30c170$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed No31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.56142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No28c145.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.45655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c142.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.155117.6%9 W · 42 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-61.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4761…15a9backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No18c133$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.735327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ec…d09cbacked Yes74c118.92$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3962…e417backed No30c100.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2712225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224928.6%14 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…b1cebacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12dd…f2bebacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d1…d015backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid+98.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb93a…251bbacked No25c99.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd87e…58debacked No31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4072…541dbacked Yes73c95.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3633…6376backed No36c92.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5b…c757backed No29c86.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c86.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x68b7…3e51backed No28c84.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe0…bf14backed No28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed No21c79.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0693…4d57backed No28c78.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked No36c76.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.462045%9 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.