Ukraine · resolved market
Russia announces air truce by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x807ad1243f168fe92cd67b1eb7d4ee387bf9a1f135c44548c6b713e0d8a67af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $618,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 6c | 44,531$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.18 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…cf6bbacked Yes | 9c | 28,854$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 12c | 26,695$3,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,321.67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 24c | 24,417$5,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,751.41 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 8c | 21,364$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.12 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed No | 63c | 18,202$11,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,729.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 26c | 9,286$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.69 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 42c | 7,908$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.69 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 47c | 7,254$3,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.81 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba7…fbaabacked Yes | 44c | 6,625$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 5,597$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.45 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 24c | 5,505$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 13c | 5,164$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…a1b6backed No | 62c | 5,096$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 66c | 5,017$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.75 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…d1e2backed Yes | 44c | 4,911$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 4,743$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.66 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 4,354$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 4,292$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.04 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 14c | 4,105$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…637cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,074$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 25c | 3,953$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…8bcabacked No | 60c | 3,811$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 51c | 3,767$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,729$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.09 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 50c | 3,259$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.96 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 24c | 2,805$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.9 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 21c | 2,755$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…1019backed No | 60c | 2,752$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 58c | 2,707$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.57 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 22c | 2,673$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 21c | 2,654$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 22c | 2,556$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.36 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 2,451$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.9 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,374$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 4c | 2,350$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 47c | 2,208$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 16c | 1,903$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 53c | 1,602$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 55c | 1,583$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 61c | 1,523$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…882ebacked No | 55c | 1,456$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…aab5backed No | 58c | 1,419$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…485cbacked No | 51c | 1,378$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…fa14backed Yes | 1c | 1,328$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 1,304$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.29 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,297$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…1f85backed Yes | 16c | 1,289$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 14c | 1,273$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…b74abacked No | 59c | 1,230$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…3464backed No | 61c | 1,219$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,217$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.4 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 68c | 1,186$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.43 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,178$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.2 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,175$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…6378backed No | 70c | 1,172$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…ee77backed Yes | 28c | 1,172$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 20c | 1,165$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed No | 61c | 1,107$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3f7dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,068$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed No | 70c | 1,035$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c1…d624backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 59c | 1,000$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.81 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…c652backed Yes | 42c | 941.6$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…35b5backed Yes | 55c | 910.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 9c | 903.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes | 31c | 900$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes | 41c | 899.53$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 17c | 862.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…0aa8backed Yes | 25c | 853.31$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 14c | 852.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed No | 63c | 798.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…15a6backed Yes | 41c | 738.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 733.3$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 33c | 726.59$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Yes | 32c | 722.56$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 671.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 31c | 670.55$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.81 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed No | 60c | 626.13$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 28c | 615.17$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.45 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 18c | 600$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 65c | 599.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 4c | 598.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1124…6cc6backed No | 61c | 598$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 38c | 562$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 62c | 531$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…038ebacked No | 71c | 528.72$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f1…d00ebacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 53c | 518.3$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 37c | 467.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 40c | 450$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 45c | 445.25$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 57c | 436.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed No | 58c | 432.28$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.39 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.