Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x667c5b79bb2d8ffc24024e2d3e80a9e72117b2ed4b4f571f1bb1ce9252a7eee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $273,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 32c | 10,014$3,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.39 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…d63fbacked No | 56c | 9,880$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 9,698$7,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.15 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…c623backed Yes | 13c | 9,401$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 11c | 8,877$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 8,242$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.05 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 46c | 6,691$3,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.89 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 41c | 6,644$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,742.81 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 6,345$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.93 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 35c | 5,883$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 40c | 5,702$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…e9e8backed No | 60c | 4,964$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 46c | 4,733$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 59c | 4,465$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.14 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 38c | 4,308$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…15a6backed No | 51c | 4,092$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…fec1backed No | 71c | 3,476$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,400$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.39 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,264$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.33 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 59c | 3,253$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 39c | 3,027$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.27 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 72c | 2,931$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 40c | 2,759$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…6b7ebacked No | 78c | 2,414$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…447cbacked Yes | 38c | 2,400$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed Yes | 12c | 2,400$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 17c | 2,369$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 25c | 2,215$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.71 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,184$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…b68fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,001$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.6 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 14c | 1,796$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed No | 71c | 1,767$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,675$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 18c | 1,602$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 1,477$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c581backed Yes | 11c | 1,476$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 36c | 1,400$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.62 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 45c | 1,396$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.63 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6983backed Yes | 3c | 1,388$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,387$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.89 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,381$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 1,240$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.89 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 21c | 1,225$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.66 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…0d05backed Yes | 17c | 1,171$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 45c | 1,167$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.95 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 5c | 1,158$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 1,114$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…5e48backed Yes | 14c | 1,050$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 40c | 1,042$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.74 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…b119backed No | 56c | 1,030$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 51c | 1,009$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.53 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 998$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.28 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…b43fbacked No | 61c | 933.48$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…c076backed Yes | 13c | 881.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 60c | 853.48$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.81 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 4c | 835$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 9c | 770$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…a827backed No | 67c | 769.84$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 26c | 727.79$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed Yes | 60c | 725.65$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.02 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…1bebbacked No | 67c | 717.16$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 46c | 677.86$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…1b04backed No | 75c | 661.7$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 62c | 648.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.68 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…1e5abacked Yes | 5c | 634.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…fba2backed Yes | 5c | 629.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 48c | 622.64$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 44c | 602$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.56 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c4…9fabbacked Yes | 42c | 599.99$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 57c | 599.97$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.21 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 581.83$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 41c | 572.05$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…9454backed Yes | 16c | 556.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…f2c0backed No | 77c | 556.69$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Yes | 55c | 554.69$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 16c | 553.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…ac7fbacked No | 50c | 541.37$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes | 47c | 529.97$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 70c | 527$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…6375backed Yes | 2c | 521.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 35c | 515.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 9c | 512$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 4c | 503.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 12c | 490.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 50c | 487.49$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.24 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5791backed Yes | 12c | 485.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 43c | 474.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…c9d5backed Yes | 42c | 471.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed No | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 69c | 458.62$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…cca4backed Yes | 11c | 442.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 74c | 439.92$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?this page
- Ukraine hits Moscow by November 30?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.