Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8da2ce6e11f3872a23797a233a30f1d03eebde505022e0cad8b6bd57aa4cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,710$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f2…eaf2backed Yes | 4c | 5,427$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,382$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,558$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 3c | 2,372$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 3c | 2,229$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,645$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…94d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,116$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,021$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 4c | 999.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 999.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 4c | 940.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 703.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 3c | 552.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…bc09backed Yes | 3c | 551$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…249ebacked Yes | 3c | 532$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Yes | 2c | 505$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 7c | 476.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 3c | 471.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 4c | 440.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…2b02backed Yes | 2c | 438$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2483…16f1backed Yes | 3c | 390$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 374.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…68e4backed Yes | 3c | 357.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 6c | 334.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 3c | 326.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…ec99backed Yes | 5c | 192.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August?this page
- Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.