Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1660efbba7191791262bad4484c8d646854606c25a49f07c1218a15501fffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 11,841$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 18c | 7,486$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.53 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,131$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 73c | 4,200$3,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…f61abacked Yes | 5c | 2,118$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,749$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…4d6fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,651$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 1,502$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 869.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…043ebacked Yes | 5c | 843.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…a780backed Yes | 4c | 519$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…7358backed Yes | 3c | 506$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ac…1399backed Yes | 6c | 477.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…4482backed Yes | 2c | 468$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…faa8backed Yes | 6c | 423$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…a216backed Yes | 5c | 416$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 377.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…7416backed Yes | 7c | 338.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…8c82backed Yes | 6c | 328$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…e39dbacked Yes | 6c | 328$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e87…f123backed Yes | 5c | 311$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…9460backed Yes | 5c | 311$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 306.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…cc85backed Yes | 5c | 298$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…5c4dbacked Yes | 6c | 285$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…c939backed Yes | 6c | 284$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…c331backed Yes | 6c | 261$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…7e9fbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 8c | 242.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9aa4backed Yes | 5c | 224$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…b7b4backed Yes | 5c | 212$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes | 7c | 210.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 208.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2556…7742backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 199.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…3ca3backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0f…b3debacked Yes | 6c | 171$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…f50bbacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…3f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 168$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…7598backed Yes | 6c | 156.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…9e06backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 74c | 92.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f9…8fc2backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August?this page
- Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August?No won
- Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.