TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c11,841$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes18c7,486$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.532441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+87.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes2c5,131$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked No73c4,200$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1342454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c3,900$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.36905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f2…f61abacked Yes5c2,118$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c1,749$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1913910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9629…4d6fbacked Yes6c1,651$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes4c1,502$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8714121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes4c869.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.353218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce24…043ebacked Yes5c843.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…7791backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea13…a780backed Yes4c519$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b6…7358backed Yes3c506$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ac…1399backed Yes6c477.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…4482backed Yes2c468$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c3…faa8backed Yes6c423$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7e…a216backed Yes5c416$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c377.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6121426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dc…7416backed Yes7c338.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd8…8c82backed Yes6c328$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e29…e39dbacked Yes6c328$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e87…f123backed Yes5c311$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250a…9460backed Yes5c311$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c306.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4037…cc85backed Yes5c298$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…5c4dbacked Yes6c285$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa2…c939backed Yes6c284$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x078e…c331backed Yes6c261$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb4…7e9fbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fc…3f73backed Yes8c242.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a0…9aa4backed Yes5c224$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147f…b7b4backed Yes5c212$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes7c210.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes5c208.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.699518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2556…7742backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c199.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…3ca3backed Yes7c180$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0f…b3debacked Yes6c171$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x582f…f50bbacked Yes6c170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2800…3f4bbacked Yes6c168$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f40…7598backed Yes6c156.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf4…9e06backed Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No74c92.31$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+93.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8f9…8fc2backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124847.9%23 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.