TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1141…55b1backed Yes8c6,344$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.252015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes4c5,607$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3421926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes4c4,103$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.132236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No78c3,972$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.529153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes15c3,857$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.753135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No71c3,469$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.4727643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes6c3,157$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.144216.7%7 W · 35 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes20c3,055$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.56546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes42c2,900$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.4714520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c2,586$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.211,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c9…cef3backed Yes5c2,242$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.93735.1%13 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes12c2,115$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5323525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No72c2,033$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.0751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes5c1,920$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9236…8e31backed Yes15c1,711$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes9c1,584$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4127233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes15c1,456$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.341729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c1,442$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.522217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb678…3913backed Yes6c1,384$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2c…17d2backed Yes22c1,356$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes25c1,299$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,246$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.852078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…89c3backed Yes4c1,188$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes53c1,128$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.155952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes36c1,104$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes5c1,102$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.43745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No53c975.43$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.9516061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes22c870.18$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.437540%30 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes7c800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes11c717.3$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes11c698$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.887610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No78c664.2$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e8…67cdbacked Yes15c660$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951d…f79fbacked Yes5c652.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes5c640.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.11779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes19c632.36$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120210%0 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9717…ddf3backed Yes14c622.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.882931%9 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-52%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes16c609.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No67c590.38$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2616537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a85…1811backed Yes22c557.18$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes15c545.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.37635.5%27 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes11c543.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.266132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes8c541.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes17c540.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.624953.1%26 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes19c525.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8613518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.394759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+169.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No79c499.99$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.717931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa891…6ed8backed Yes32c485.02$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.23616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes3c484.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+46.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes30c460.08$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…08e9backed Yes5c426.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…055abacked Yes24c426.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.661421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a71…d027backed Yes75c420.08$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes4c370.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes17c370$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3516440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes3c366.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes7c360.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9422262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No79c350$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes3c330$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.199530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes10c309.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes4c279.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28cf…02b9backed Yes20c251.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes6c233.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7522547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes13c230.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2917347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fd…b42bbacked Yes5c220$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes7c215$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9428943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No36c214.41$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1386743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a03…68d1backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0193…8779backed Yes8c186.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c178$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7d1…8749backed Yes44c176.4$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes27c176.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473030%9 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c176$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes30c174.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.894540%18 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No77c157.54$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.093847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes34c135$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes30c121.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.469920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No71c101.54$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142931%9 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7655…4d7abacked Yes21c93.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ec…53c9backed No75c72.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.195244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1a…90a2backed Yes30c67.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a66…08a3backed Yes20c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes28c61.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.119414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6b…729bbacked Yes25c52.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed Yes44c45.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed No53c43.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.44461.4%27 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+69.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes35c32.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.653256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x071c…489dbacked No70c25.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.731250%6 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.