Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98de82ce61834be0d9f45f40a331dbaaafa763fe799348af1449460c0c90cb67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 33c | 1,940$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 29c | 1,517$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…9db6backed Yes | 35c | 1,430$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 69c | 1,393$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 27c | 1,148$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.76 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…cf2bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,038$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 73c | 999.95$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 70c | 886.71$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.87 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 72c | 808.02$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.69 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed No | 76c | 661.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 73c | 424.47$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…d861backed No | 77c | 421.41$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 70c | 420.72$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.81 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 60c | 384.79$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 70c | 356.49$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…2a47backed Yes | 27c | 312.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…6bf7backed Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 25c | 288.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 21c | 286.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.73 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…d3adbacked Yes | 30c | 253.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 69c | 249.79$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 28c | 245.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 33c | 237.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 232.69$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 52c | 192.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…9d46backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 58c | 185.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 69c | 181.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 177.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…3ae8backed Yes | 35c | 170.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…5e23backed No | 68c | 170$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed No | 70c | 159.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked No | 71c | 153.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed No | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…178abacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 127.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…a3edbacked No | 73c | 123.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 19c | 122.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 25c | 110.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 73c | 110.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 108.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 105.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 35c | 104.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…ad35backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…9f5cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 31c | 96.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 70c | 94.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4d…2a47backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 70c | 85.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 69c | 79.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 72c | 76.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 28c | 75.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b6f2backed Yes | 27c | 75.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…3e46backed Yes | 27c | 75.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cd…5df2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 26c | 72.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…4634backed Yes | 30c | 60.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 27c | 58.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…8d48backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 61c | 57.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…6799backed Yes | 27c | 52.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 51c | 47.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…ba24backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…13e7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…0649backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd02…edddbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 77c | 38.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 74c | 35.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…0707backed No | 72c | 32.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…3325backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…2aa9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…83eebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…be5ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.