Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09a0055dd6753036f0020a64275bb4d20229236245525356d8722ec8b05cdbf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 78c | 11,420$8,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 8c | 9,662$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 0c | 8,227$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…d3adbacked No | 5c | 6,783$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…a950backed No | 1c | 5,304$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…587bbacked Yes | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 1c | 4,151$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 3,903$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…db4bbacked No | 22c | 3,605$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 79c | 1,991$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.73 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb03d…6472backed No | 20c | 1,976$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…fe8bbacked No | 1c | 1,678$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 78c | 1,590$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.81 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 78c | 1,582$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.53 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 8c | 1,459$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 1,424$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…9b60backed No | 5c | 1,317$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 74c | 1,307$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 21c | 1,184$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…16d1backed No | 18c | 1,151$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 5c | 1,110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 28c | 1,095$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 79c | 999.98$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked No | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 983.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…29f2backed No | 21c | 932.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…4735backed No | 23c | 878.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…b04abacked No | 18c | 840$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…8195backed No | 23c | 824.4$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…ad91backed No | 21c | 796.61$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…aa76backed No | 17c | 755.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 5c | 732.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 30c | 721.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…8913backed No | 22c | 719.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed No | 21c | 717.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…25bcbacked No | 24c | 704.94$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 77c | 674.45$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 22c | 674.26$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d3…1bedbacked No | 26c | 665.8$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…a945backed No | 15c | 665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…14c4backed No | 18c | 656.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed No | 25c | 606.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…6405backed No | 21c | 595$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…6304backed No | 21c | 574.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b3…0719backed No | 12c | 560.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 18c | 558.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 529.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…1ba5backed No | 18c | 510.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 19c | 507.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…8300backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed No | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa219…3528backed No | 27c | 475.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…a696backed No | 26c | 470.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…9e86backed No | 26c | 469.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 10c | 457.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…7687backed No | 22c | 455.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 76c | 446.11$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…ffccbacked No | 23c | 434.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 23c | 433.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 10c | 415$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed No | 20c | 407.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…fb28backed No | 25c | 405.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…dd42backed No | 25c | 402.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba1…6fa7backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…39bfbacked No | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 79c | 392.34$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed No | 14c | 369.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 366.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 8c | 348.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…2a47backed No | 17c | 347.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 22c | 341.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed No | 21c | 336.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…04f7backed No | 24c | 330.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…01d1backed No | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…089fbacked No | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed No | 22c | 299.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…cb41backed No | 18c | 296.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 79c | 277.49$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…a5a1backed No | 18c | 276.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…1235backed No | 19c | 266.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…e0b9backed No | 20c | 265.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…f69ebacked No | 19c | 263$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed No | 27c | 261.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 19c | 257.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 21c | 257.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 78c | 255.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…25e9backed No | 47c | 254.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…14cdbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…6a20backed No | 21c | 236.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…babfbacked No | 23c | 223.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 76c | 209.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…abbbbacked No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…2852backed No | 26c | 207.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…05f2backed No | 20c | 200.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.